Here’s me, a year ago, sounding crazy:
I bet the Google self-driving car never becomes the market leader. It’s possible it’s not even the first to market for public purchase. It’s even possible that it never makes the market at all.
I bet Google rolls back into a software partner role in its alliance with Ford. I bet Google distributes its software for cars the same way it distributes its software for phones.
And here’s the news this month:
Google has refocused its autonomous driving efforts away from developing its own car without a steering wheel and pedals … Instead, the company is said to be partnering with automakers on more conventional cars
Shortly after that news broke, Google spun its car division out into Waymo, which still sorta promises to make self-driving a reality. Turns out I was a little wrong — it may wind up being Chrysler or Honda who partners with Google, not Ford. But I’ll still call the harder prediction, that Google won’t be market leader or even first to market, a success so far.
It turns out cars are pretty hard to make.