The Idiosyncrasies of (Sports) Statistics

By JoshPetersel in Josh plays Sports, Words 0 Comment

This recent article on ESPN cites the following:

How improbable was Sunday? According to Elias, teams trailing by at least 24 points at halftime were 5-617 entering Sunday night. Make it six.

For context: On 11/24, the Patriots were losing to the Broncos by a score of 24-0 halfway through the game. They ultimately rallied back to win the game.

No doubt, this was an exciting match. But calling the Patriots’ odds of victory at 5-617 is absolutely bunk.

To illustrate: Suppose that of those 622 games (5 + 617), 617 teams were losing at halftime by a score of 9,001-0. (Not an easy score to accomplish in the NFL…but bear with me.) Those 617 teams all lost handily — that’s an impossibly difficult comeback to mount! Further, suppose that the remaining five teams were each down 24-0 and all five of them came back and won their games.

In that fantasy scenario, it’s still technically correct to say that “teams trailing by at least 24 points were 5-617.” But you can see why the statistic is horribly misleading — in fact, without changing the world, you could also say “teams trailing by 24 points came back to win every single time” and be just as correct.

Back in our real-world Broncos & Patriots scenario: It’s worth pointing out that the Broncos scored its 24th point with over 6 minutes remaining in the 2nd quarter. So the Patriots actually had 36 minutes (15 minutes per quarter, plus the aforementioned 6) to mount their comeback, rather than 30. That’s 20% more time!

This sort of idiosyncrasy happens in sports ALL. THE. TIME. A slightly different example: In baseball, when the announcer says “Derek Jeter has gotten a hit in 3 of his last 4 at bats” you can all but guarantee that Jeter got an out in his 5th-to-last plate appearance, and the announcer could have said “Derek Jeter has gotten a hit in 3 of his last 5 at bats.” (Otherwise, of course, he’d have just said “Jeter has gotten a hit in 4 of his last 5 at bats” because that’d have made a more compelling point!)

Though I find this tends to happen in sports most abundantly, because sports fans find statistics like this to be fascinating, it’s just as applicable anywhere. When you hear something like “Facebook missed its earnings projections two quarters in a row,” you can make a strong bet that three quarters back, the company met or exceeded its benchmark.

Choose your own lesson, depending on how optimistically you view the world:

A. This is just a fun way that stats work. You can tease your friends about how harmlessly inaccurate the Derek Jeter statistic is and how dopey the announcer is for declaring it, and not put too much thought into things.

or

B. Be very careful of the biases and values of your sources — because even statistics that are based in fact can be warped to deceptively convey a very biased opinion.

Credit Card Design, Pt. III

By JoshPetersel in Design, Josh for Business 0 Comment

In November 2012 I wrote about Credit Card Design. And later that month I wrote a follow-up when I saw that MasterCard basically did the exact opposite of what I proposed.

Kevin pointed me to Coin, a new sort of credit card designed to alleviate the pain of carrying multiple credit cards in your overstuffed wallet.

Coin Credit card

He and I share some concerns about the quality and effectiveness of the concept. My commentary:

Damn. I’m thrilled with how similar this looks to the design I made a year ago.

I’m not as worried as you are about the 2-year battery expiration. Two years is a long time — you’re replacing your credit cards that frequently anyway. They’ll probably deteriorate structurally by that point, anyway, from normal wear and tear. (Remember how our college ID cards needed to be replaced at about that rate?)

What I am worried about:

1. I share your concern about displaying the name and the CVV data. The latter from a use case standpoint. The former because what happens when 2+ people in your party have a Coin? How do you tell whose is whose when the waiter returns your check? Etc.

2. If it’s that easy for you to switch which card you want to use, it’s probably also that easy for the waiter to accidentally (or maliciously?) tap the card and switch it to the wrong one. You probably won’t even find out until the end of the month when you get your statement.

And opportunity:

1. $50-$100 is not really a whole lot of money when you think in terms of locking a customer into a long-term relationship. Cell phone companies figured this out ages ago and have been employing the practice of deep ($100+) phone discounts in exchange for 1- and 2- year contracts. I could easily see Bank of America, or Visa, or whoever the appropriate relevant party is, knocking off the $100 fee in exchange for setting up an account.

Welcome

By JoshPetersel in Josh on Josh 0 Comment

Hard to believe I’ve been doing this blog thing for over six years now.

Luckily there’s that whole archive thing running down the right side of the screen now. You’re probably going to click over there now and see that it’s mostly trash. Sorry. I used to be terrible at this.

Thanks for sticking with me, though. If the past is any indication, things will only get astronomically better from here.

Bad Business Ideas: Part II

By JoshPetersel in Josh and the Arts 0 Comment

Part two of my list of Bad Business ideas. Click here for Part I

Author: David
Bio: Neighbor 

Cell Phone Confetti Poppers:  Ring tones are lame and the vibrate function doesn’t show off your personal style.  Enter cell phone confetti poppers.  They look just like the Square credit card reader that plugs into your earphone jack, except confetti poppers make a loud pop and shoot confetti whenever you receive a call or text!  Inject some party into your daily life with cell phone confetti poppers.

Iron Chef Catering:   Bring the excitement of iron chef to your next backyard party!  Iron chef catering serves delicious meals with one catch: the special ingredient is not announced until the food is served!  Imagine the excitement of your friends and family as everyone finds out whether each food item is going to contain bean curd… or pork bellies!

Hydrogen Party Balloons: There is a helium crisis in America.  We’re low on helium and what we do have is constantly escaping earth to outer space.  Hydrogen, in contrast, is abundant, cheap, and fun!  Hydrogen party balloons are 8% more buoyant than conventional balloons giving your party that extra kick!

Mini Pencils:  Like regular pencils, but they take up less space.  The mini pencil is ideal for getting kids excited about learning how to write.

Massage Flippers:  For the snorkeling enthusiast who hates foot cramps, introducing massage flippers.  These electric flippers are like an electric back massage cushion, but on your feet.  Sold exclusively at The Sharper Image.

Mini Smelter:  If you’re like most Americans, you use electricity at home in the morning and at night, but almost not at all during the day when you’re away at work.  If so, you are wasting a valuable opportunity for a completely passive source of income!  A mini aluminum smelter can be turned on to run during the day, just like your dish washer.  Except a smelter produces liquid metal gold* enabling you to sell commodity products to your local soda can manufacturer.

*(actually aluminum)

Thumb Wrestling TV:  Thumb wrestling, also known as “the mini golf of martial arts” is actively played on playgrounds across America.  Thumb Wrestling TV uncovers the fierce competition in this underground sport and introduces viewers to the top thumb warriors in the game today.

The Reverse Lottery: Looking for a fun new game where almost everyone is a winner?  The reverse lottery is the game for you.  Here’s how it works:  Everyone who wants to play is given a ticket and $1. (Play as many times as you like!) 99%+ of players win and walk away. One player loses and everything they own is repossessed. Hey, it probably won’t be you!

Microchip Child:  Microchip implants for pets have become more and more popular.  Microchips allow runaway pets to be identified by pet shelters, saving pet owners from fear and heartbreak.  Microchips for children bring you that same comfort and security.  A microchip is perfect for the parent who likes the idea of a child leash, but doesn’t want to look like a control freak.

Hello Kitty Airlines:  Fact: Most airlines are boring.  Sure, they get you from point A to point B, but where is the fun in that?  Hello Kitty Airline is similar to previous novelty airlines like Hooters Air, and LasVegas Airlines, except that it caters to the key elementary school girl travel demographic.  Oh wait, this one already exists.  My mistake.

Author: Kevin
Bio: Conspirator

HEADJAMZ: Dual sided headphones so that you can correctly listen to your music and be a walking boombox.  Particularly effective on public transit.  Also, the outward-facing speakers will be only tweeters, so that it’s extra tinny.  We’ll make it in China from the crappiest materials possible and sell it for $200.  Eat your heart out, Beats!

LP-8: Rather than recording LP to MP3, a thing that records LP to an 8 track, for maximum hipster street cred. (And futureproofing!).  $400

Phonesnaps: glue snaps to your phone, wear with corresponding belt to keep phone out of the pocket of your super tight/painfully distressed jeans.  For people who are a) interested in looking like a business man with a phone holster or b) vain as hell and want to show off their iphone 5.  Bonus: it spins, so you can do phone tricks!  1-and-1: totally not a thief magnet!  Double Bonus:  Basketball jokes. Production Cost: $0.17, MSRP: $15 for 2 if you call in the first 15 minutes, plus we’ll throw in the bonus rhinestone edition for free.

Favorilunch: Food truck that just drives around and buys lunch from other places, then sells said food at a premium.  Also, there are no coolers/heaters on board, so your cold stuff gets warm, and your warm stuff gets cold.  Who doesn’t want 3-hour-old Big Macs?  Sadly, I think this is actually a viable (and likely already executed) business plan.  $5 per delivery

Overseers, Inc.: Company of consultant “watchers” to physically walk around and make sure people are productive.  Big brother is guaranteed to increase productivity and worker well-being!  Oh, and they won’t actually DO anything.  They’ll just oversee.  No reports, no telling people to get to work.  Maybe they can wear the Ordinator Masks from Morrowind to instill respect.  $100/hr

Lightsavers: – Company that you can pay to strip your house of 20th (and 21st) century creature comforts in the sake of eco-friendly behavior.  You’ll be the envy of all your crunchy friends when they find out you not only culled the TV from your life, but also electricity, running water, and air conditioning.  $morethanyoucanaffordasrippingelectricalandplumbingoutofwallsisreallyexpensive

Tepid Travelers:  Travel agency to take people on tours of culturally devoid (but highly representative) parts of a city/country.  Think bus tours of chintzy strip malls and outdated amusement parks.  Again, for the hipster crowd (who are all pretending this wasn’t their childhood).  This also would make a really great photo portfolio.  $500 for a bus trip that lasts for 1 weekend, lodging and food not included, and driving to/from takes up the vast majority of the trip.  Oh, and the bathrooms will all be broken and never to be repaired.

Choose your tandem adventure:

Pedalcab: – Rather than the traditional pedicab, just hop on the back of a tandem!  It’s got all the convenience of a pedicab, but only 1 person can ride it, and it’s really uncomfortable.  And you have to work.  $Sameasacab

OR

It Takes Two to Tandem:  tandem bikes dropped off throughout the city, for when you want to use a bike, but want to split the cost with someone.  What are the chances someone DOESN’T want to join you at your destination? Bonus: awkward time with strangers! $Halfthepriceofacab + yourdignity (This would probably actually work really well at a music festival)

OptionalOffice: an office that folds down into a briefcase for easy travel.  (Sadly, they did a similar skit this week on SNL where they had a bathroom desk that you could set up in a stall, and collapse down into a heavy suitcase) Pulled from market due to copyright infringement.

EZ Bake Dresser: Get that just-out-of-the-dryer warmth every morning with a warming drawer in your dresser!  Definitely not a fire hazard or an incredible waste of energy!  Covert your old dresser for $300+installation, or buy our custom dressers with multiple warming drawers for only $2000.  Also, every drawer has its own plug, so BYO power strip(s).

The Snap-on-Sipper:  Snap-on lid for a soup bowl so you can drink the broth without worrying about spilling it all over your face.  Because, you know, tipping is dangerous. Production cost: $0.12, MSRP: $6 for 2 if you call within the next 15 minutes.

The Comfort of Digital Security: A filing cabinet that unlocks with an app.  Because cellphones and apps will forever be used, supported, and/or culturally relevant.  But when that forever ends, all your shit is trapped for the next ever.  $249.99 (from Skymall only)

EcoBeans: An eco-friendly company that only sells its coffee to people who bring their own mug.  If you don’t you get it served to you in one of those super-crappy paper cups you get at the golf course.  Spills and burns will teach you, treehater! $Priceless

HandHolders: A (customizable!) strap to put on your laptop so that you can carry it with one hand.  Since you can’t carry it with one hand already.  This will be all the rage with kids because a) it’s pointless and b) it’s a status symbol.  We’ll sell this for $80 to generate maximum strife between middle school kids and their hard-working parents.


Author: Matt
Bio: Designer

1) Moving Buddy — just like a real friend who “helps” you move, you pay for an expert with a crossover SUV whose car can only carry half of your stuff to come watch you struggle to fit your couch through the door, occasionally encouraging you to “back it out, and try it sideways.”

2) Junk Mail Disposal — a technician comes by your house every morning and throws away your junk mail. And maybe some of your other mail.

3) E-mail answering service — I spend about 70% of my time answering emails, and most of the time the recipients couldn’t care less what I say. So why not pay an up-and-coming comedian to practice their one-liners on my behalf?

4) Notification notifier — A subscription-based notification service that notifies you when you have unread notifications.

5) “No-fly list? No problem!” Airlines — A budget airline that doesn’t hire any security personnel. It’s cheaper, and faster — no lines, no metal detectors, no pesky bomb-sniffing dogs. Carry all the liquids you want.

6) If Lenscrafters can put an optometrist in every WalMart, I don’t see why we can’t have walk-in plastic surgery shops in shopping malls.

7) Opposite Day — A restaurant that serves the opposite of whatever you order. “I’ll just have a salad.” ? Hope you like 3 lbs of flank steak. ” Can you make that without tomatoes?” What about making it with ONLY tomatoes? Of course, you can try to game the system, but there’s a catch — every 100th order the kitchen receives is taken at face value.

8) The Napp Store — Retail outlets like coffee shops, where you can buy a nap. Naps come in Small, Medium, or Large. Remember, for whatever you need, “There’s a Nap for that.”

9) Ummmmeter — Like a pedometer, only it counts the number of times you say “ummmm …” or any variant thereof. Allows you to share this statistic on Facebook or twitter.

10) A service to have people come and do odd jobs for you, but only to 95% completion. This way, you feel incredibly accomplished (“I did 3 loads of laundry, mowed my lawn, walked my dog, and washed my car today!”) without having to actually do any of the hard work.

.

Bad Business Ideas: Part I

By JoshPetersel in Josh and the Arts 1 Comment

I felt like it’d be productive to have a big list of bad business ideas. I asked a handful of friends to pitch in.

Send me an email if you’d like to contribute. Part II is coming next week.

Author: Sean
Bio: Lawyer-in-Training

1. The Blackout Movie Theater — Do you enjoy listening to movies, but hate watching them? The Blackout Movie Theater brings all the comfort and joy of going to the movies, without being able to watch a thing. Our theaters are equipped with Full Dolby Surround Sound, but no visual projection systems. Now playing Silent Films only. Blind customers not admitted.

2. The Youputer — Do you have an overwhelming desire to process and express information through binary code? Then the Youputer might be right for you. After six month long surgery and recuperation process (with up to an extra month for defragmentation), you can replace your human brain with a used, nineties Dell Computer processor (sorry Mac Fanboys, Windows OS ONLY!).  Be wary of those windows updates, however — you might have to restart in safe mode.

3. The Reverse Urinal – Just use your imagination. R. Kelly maybe already owns three. Coming Soon: The Reverse Toilet.

4. The Offline Social Network — Inspired by Taco from “The League,” the offline social network brings you all the joy of finding out what your friends are up to, without the benefit of instant updates and with the added obligation of criminal charges for all of the stalking that you do. Your profile page is a large piece of recylcled poster board (From a 7th grade science fair), which comes with sticky adhesive so that you can put it on your apartment door, or a string so that you can wear it around your neck like a sandwich board.

5. The Personal WiFi Hotspot — Annoyed that you can never get internet service when you really need it? The Personal WiFi Hotspot is a surrogate that follows you around holding a 100-foot antenna, at all times! Available in hardwire version only — so you must be plugged into your surrogate when you want to use the internet; we swear we’re working on a wireless version….

6. The Smoke Enhancer — Are you the type of person that enjoys annoying non-smokers with the stench of your addictive habit? Do you get off on giving as many babies and children second hand smoke as you possibly can? Then you should invest in the smoke enhancer. Shaped like a megaphone, this device guarantees that the smell and impact radius of your cigarette will be increased tenfold.

7.  The Guess the Last Ingredient Cookbook (“GLIC”) — Are you a food connoisseur, or just the type who likes to combine things you find in the pantry in order to see what happens? The GLIC comes fully equipped with all of your favorite recipes, but intentionally leaves the last one out. It’s up to you to figure out what is missing and should be included. Think that chocolate is the missing link to making your culinary take on Pizza? Go for it. Emeril Lagasse called this “The Where’s Waldo of Cookbooks.” (Hint: The missing ingredient was cheese; it’s always cheese).

8. The Inkless Pen — Do you enjoy scratching on paper for hours on end, and struggling to write down the notes that you’re professor is moving too fast for you to take anyway? The inkless pen allows you to scratch whatever you want to write onto your paper, and comes equipped with a magnifying glass so that you can decipher your caveman markings later. Perfect for writing secret notes to friends, the pen is equipped with a sharp point at the end in order to maximize effectiveness.

WARNING FOR TEENAGE GIRLS: NOT RECOMMENDED FOR AMATEUR BODY HENNA WHILE BORED IN CLASS

9.  The Dog Petter — Tired of petting your dog? Those pesky animals demand so much attention, so what if you could get a proxy for your hand? After all, the purpose of having a dog isn’t to pet it. It’s to feed it and clean up its poop. So take all the joy out of owning a dog, and buy the pet petter. Available in white, black, and all shades in between.

10. Sand Paper Dispenser — From the makers of the “The Reverse Urinal” and “The Reverse Toilet”, we present: The Sandpaper Dispenser. Tired of having course paper towels that you can barely get out of the dispenser after trying not to touch absolutely anything in the public bathroom? Well if you do accidentally make contact with something, decontaminate yourself by taking off the top layer of your skin, with the Sandpaper Dispenser. Available in 2 textures: “Mild Irritation”, and “Oh God No WHYYYY”

 

Author: Peter
Bio: Doctor-in-Training

1. U-neck t-shirts. Actually…everything-neck t-shirts.

2. Two-sided dice.

3. Soda/beer cans with a pull tab at the top AND the bottom.

4. odorless cologne

5. stickless popsicles

6. non-alcoholic vodka

7. gravel shoes

8. nonstick lint rollers

9. cook-it-yourself restaurants

10. solar powered flashlight

11. liquid ice cream

 

 

Author: Josh
Bio: He runs this ship

  1. Chlorine flavored soda.
  2. Escalators with handrails that run in the wrong direction.
  3. Rotatable t-shirts with long sleeves one way and short sleeves the other. So if you walk outside and find the weather is not to your liking, pull your arms out of the sleeves, rotate the shirt 90 degrees around the neckline, and you’re good to go.
  4. Reversible shoes.
  5. Airbnb for restaurants, where people can use the restaurant’s kitchens and equipment during off-hours.
  6. An analog clock or watch that goes from 1-6 so you have to count AM1, AM2, PM1, PM2.
  7. Silverware.
    1. Extendable fork & knife so you don’t have to move your hands as far while eating.
    2. A TV Remote with a fork attachment at the end of it so it’s more convenient to eat and watch TV at the same time.
    3. The Forker – a fork adhesive/attachment so that you can use the everyday object of your choice (the TV remote, your favorite pet, your other silverware) as a fork.
  8. The “Crazy Straw” concept applied to other straight things. For example:
    1. Crazy forks
    2. Crazy pens
    3. Crazy phones
    4. Crazy matches
    5. Crazy walking sticks
    6. Crazy Twizzlers
    7. Crazy fan blades
    8. Crazy swords
    9. Crazy rulers
  9. Smartphones.
    1. A smartphone app or attachment that intentionally drains the phone battery as fast as possible.
    2. A smartphone app that converts text messages into snail mail and delivers them via post.
    3. A smartphone poison pill / fart bomb. Hard-installed behind the phone motherboard. In the event your phone gets stolen, you activate this remotely and it makes the phone stink to holy hell. The thief is frustrated and will have a hard time re-selling your wares at the local pawn shop, and his thief-friends won’t want to hang out near him.
    4. Car crash safety rating measurement company, but for cell phones and cell phone cases. Gives phones and cases different safety ratings for “Front impact,” “Side impact,” “dropped clumsily,” “thrown across the room in drunken rage,” and “rollover.”
  10. Baby’s First Industrial Strength Band Saw.
  11. Captcha security, but for the door of your house. That way, robots can’t break in and steal your stuff.
  12. Gesture controlled everything, so you never have to actually interact with everyday objects. Instead, more conveniently, you can mime interacting with everything. For example:
    1. Gesture-controlled window shades
    2. Gesture-controlled light switch
    3. Gesture-controlled steering wheel
    4. Gesture-controlled toothbrush
  13. Kickstarter: Copyright infringement version. Crowd funding for Chinese companies to make illegal knockoffs of old, beloved products that no longer exist, like Surge, Dr. Pepper Red Fusion, Ecto Cooler, and so on.
  14. Replacement halves of scissors.